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Uttar Pradesh Gears Up for Historic Elections: A Battle of Ideologies and Confidence

Amit Pandey

Ballia: The countdown has begun, as Uttar Pradesh braces itself for the first phase of elections, set to take place on April 19th. This electoral battleground, encompassing 8 seats, promises to be an examination of the confidence behind the saffron party’s resounding slogan, “Abki Bar 400 Par.” 

The spotlight shines particularly on the western region of Uttar Pradesh, traditionally a stronghold of the Samajwadi Party. However, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) enters the fray with its own carefully curated agenda, propelled by the dynamic face of Narendra Modi. 

While the Samajwadi Party seeks to retain its deep-rooted support base, the BJP aims to forge a new narrative, backed by their charismatic leader. As the political landscape transforms, the stage is set for an intense battle of ideologies, inspiring hope, and aspirations among the electorates.

With socio-economic factors, development policies, and welfare schemes dominating the discourse, these elections hold enormous significance. As the citizens gear up to exercise their democratic right, the parties involved must present persuasive arguments, captivating the voters, and addressing their concerns for a better future.

As the first phase approaches, all eyes are on Uttar Pradesh. The outcome of this critical contest will not only shape the state’s political trajectory but also have far-reaching implications for the national political landscape. Stay tuned as the historic elections unfold, offering insights into the choices made by the people and the path their beloved state will embark upon.

The Kairana Lok Sabha constituency has indeed seen a dynamic political history since its establishment in 1962. Here’s a detailed overview of the electoral and political scenario in Kairana, including the significant events and shifts:

Electoral Details from 2014:

– 2014 General Elections: BJP’s Hukum Singh won the seat with 565,909 votes (50.54%), defeating SP’s Nahid Hasan who received 329,081 votes (29.49%).

– 2018 By-election: Triggered by the death of BJP MP Hukum Singh, this election saw a significant shift. RLD’s Tabassum Hasan, supported by a united opposition, won the seat with 481,182 votes (51.26%), defeating BJP’s Mriganka Singh who got 436,564 votes (46.51%).

– 2019 General Elections:BJP reclaimed the seat with Pradeep Chaudhary winning 566,961 votes (50.44%), while SP’s Tabassum Hasan received 474,801 votes (42.24%).

Hindu Exodus After Riot:

The term “Hindu exodus” in Kairana refers to the alleged migration of Hindu families during 2014-16 due to extortion threats and a deteriorating law and order situation. This issue was highlighted by BJP MP Hukum Singh, who released a list of families that had reportedly migrated. The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) issued a notice to the Uttar Pradesh government regarding this migration⁶. However, the claims of a mass exodus were contested, and subsequent investigations suggested that the migration was not solely due to communal reasons but also economic and social factors.

Current Political Scenario:

As of the latest updates, the political scenario in Kairana is evolving beyond the previous “exodus” narrative. The Samajwadi Party (SP) is focusing on consolidating Muslim votes, which make up a significant portion of the electorate. The BJP, on the other hand, is highlighting development policies and governance to appeal to the voters. The RLD, now allied with the SP, is emphasizing farmer-related issues to attract the Jat electorate.

The constituency comprises five assembly segments, with the SP holding the Kairana seat, the BJP winning in Nakur and Gangoh, and the RLD victorious in Thana Bhawan and Shamli². The upcoming elections will be a test of whether the BJP can maintain its hold on the Lok Sabha seat amid these shifting dynamics.

  • Constituency : Kairana
  • Candidate (Party): Sripal Rana  (Bahujan Samajawadi Party)
  • Candidate (Party): Pradeep Chaudhary (Bharatiya Janata Party)
  • Candidate (Party): Ikra Hasan (Samajwadi Party)
  • Total Voters: 1,750,000
  • Male Voters: 910,000
  • Female Voters: 840,000
  • Caste Composition:
  • – Other Backward Classes: 45% 
  • – Scheduled Castes: 25%
  • – Upper Caste: 20%
  • – Scheduled Tribes: 10%
  • Religious Composition:
  • – Muslim: 45%
  • – Hindu: 53% 
  • – Others: 2%
  • Key Issues:
  • – Communal harmony and security concerns
  • – Improving irrigation and power supply for farmers
  • – Creating more job opportunities 
  • – Better infrastructure development

The Muzaffarnagar Lok Sabha constituency in Uttar Pradesh is gearing up for the polls on 19 April 2024. Here’s a comprehensive look at the electoral details and history of this constituency:

Past MPs from 2009 to 2019:

– 2009:Kadir Rana from the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) won the seat.

– 2014 & 2019: Sanjeev Balyan from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged victorious.

Brief Scenario and Political Stronghold:

Muzaffarnagar has been a politically volatile area with a significant Muslim population, constituting about 27% of the voters. The constituency has five assembly segments – Budhana, Charthawal, Muzaffarnagar, Khatauli, and Sardhana – all currently held by the BJP, indicating the party’s stronghold in the region.

Impact of Mayawati’s Candidate:

Mayawati’s BSP has fielded Dara Singh Prajapati for the upcoming polls. Her campaign promises, such as the creation of a separate state for West Uttar Pradesh if elected to power, could sway voters looking for regional empowerment. The BSP’s decision to contest alone may affect the vote share of the alliance between the Samajwadi Party (SP), Congress, and other parties, potentially leading to a split in votes¹⁴.

Electoral History:

The electoral history of Muzaffarnagar has seen a shift from the BSP’s victory in 2009 to the BJP’s stronghold in the last two general elections. The region has witnessed communal tensions in the past, which have influenced voting patterns. The BJP’s focus on development and governance has been a key factor in their recent victories.

As the 2024 polls approach, the political dynamics in Muzaffarnagar are complex, with caste and community affiliations playing a significant role. The entry of Mayawati’s candidate adds another layer to this intricate political landscape, making the upcoming election a closely watched event.

Constituency : Muzaffarnagar

  • Candidate (Party): Sanjeev Balyan (Bharatiya Janata Party) 
  • Candidate (Party): Imran Masood (Indian National Congress)
  • Candidate (Party): Kadir Rana (Bahujan Samaj Party)
  • Total Voters: 1,900,000
  • Male Voters: 980,000
  • Female Voters: 920,000
  • Caste Composition:
  • – Other Backward Classes: 40%
  • – Scheduled Castes: 25% 
  • – Upper Caste: 25%
  • – Scheduled Tribes: 10% 
  • Religious Composition:
  • – Hindu: 65%
  • – Muslim: 33%
  • – Others: 2%

Key Issues:

  • – Communal harmony and rehabilitation of riot victims
  • – Improving sugarcane procurement prices for farmers
  • – Addressing unemployment and economic concerns
  • – Better law and order situation

The Bijnor Lok Sabha constituency in Uttar Pradesh is set to hold its polls on 19 April 2024. Here’s a detailed look at the electoral details, historical context, and current political scenario:

Past MPs from 2009 to 2019:

  • – 2009: Sanjay Singh Chauhan from the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) won the seat.
  • – 2014 & 2019: Kunwar Bharatendra Singh from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Malook Nagar from the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) won the seat, respectively.

Brief Scenario and Political Stronghold:

Bijnor has a significant electorate with approximately 1,664,125 voters as per the 2019 Lok Sabha Election statistics. The constituency comprises five assembly seats — Purqazi, Meerapur, Bijnor, Chandpur, and Hastinapur. Historically, Bijnor has been a stronghold for the BSP, but in recent elections, the BJP has made significant inroads.

Impact of Mayawati’s Candidate:

The BSP has fielded Chaudhary Vijendra Singh for the 2024 polls. Mayawati’s promise to take concrete steps to make western Uttar Pradesh a separate state if elected to power could influence the voters looking for regional empowerment. The BSP’s decision to contest alone may affect the vote share of the alliance between the Samajwadi Party (SP), Congress, and other parties, potentially leading to a split in votes.

Electoral History:

Bijnor’s electoral history has seen a shift from the BSP’s victory in 2009 to the BJP’s stronghold in the last two general elections. The region has witnessed communal tensions in the past, which have influenced voting patterns. The BJP’s focus on development and governance has been a key factor in their recent victories.

As the 2024 polls approach, the political dynamics in Bijnor are complex, with caste and community affiliations playing a significant role. The entry of Mayawati’s candidate adds another layer to this intricate political landscape, making the upcoming election a closely watched event.

  • Constituency : Bijnor
  • Candidate (Party): Malook Nagar (Bahujan Samaj Party)
  • Candidate (Party): Kunwar Bhartendra (Bharatiya Janata Party)
  • Candidate (Party) Deepak Saini  (Samajwadi Party)
  • Total Voters: 1,680,000
  • Male Voters: 870,000
  • Female Voters: 810,000
  • Caste Composition:
  • – Other Backward Classes: 40%
  • – Scheduled Castes: 30%
  • – Upper Caste: 20%
  • – Scheduled Tribes: 10%
  • Religious Composition:
  • – Hindu: 70% 
  • – Muslim: 28%
  • – Others: 2%
  • Key Issues:
  • – Improving irrigation and power supply for farmers
  • – Providing better healthcare and education facilities
  • – Creating job opportunities for the youth
  • – Strengthening communal harmony

The Nagina Lok Sabha constituency in Uttar Pradesh has become a focal point of political discussion, especially after the entry of Chandra Shekhar Azad Rawan as candidate. 

Chandra Shekhar Azad Rawan’s Effect:

Chandra Shekhar Azad, the leader of the Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram), is contesting the Lok Sabha elections for the first time from Nagina. His candidacy has introduced a new dimension to the electoral battle, potentially splitting the Muslim-Dalit vote, which traditionally went to either the Samajwadi Party (SP) or the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). This split could give an edge to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the constituency.

Electoral History Since 2004:

Nagina constituency was formed after the 2008 delimitation. Since its inception, it has seen a varied representation:

  • – In 2009, the seat was won by the SP.
  • – In 2014, during the Modi wave, the BJP secured the seat.
  • – In 2019, the BSP won the seat, in alliance with the SP.
  • Mayawati’s Candidate Impact:

Mayawati’s BSP has a strong organizational base in Nagina, with a significant number of Dalit and Muslim voters. The BSP’s strategy seems to focus on curbing the rise of Chandra Shekhar Azad and maintaining its hold among the Dalit electorate. Mayawati’s nephew, Akash Anand, has been campaigning in the area, indicating the importance of the constituency for the BSP.

All-Party Candidates:

The major candidates in the fray are from the SP, BSP, BJP, and Azad Samaj Party. Each party is trying to consolidate its base while reaching out to the undecided voters.

Samajwadi Party’s Influence in Western UP:

The SP has had a significant influence in Western UP, often forming alliances with parties like the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) to strengthen its position among the Jat and Muslim communities.

Legislative Assembly Seats:

In the 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, the BJP emerged as the dominant party, winning a majority of the seats. The SP also had a significant win tally, while the BSP’s presence was minimal. The RLD managed to secure a few seats, reflecting its regional influence.

This intricate political landscape in Nagina will likely lead to a closely contested election, with each candidate’s performance potentially altering the traditional vote patterns and power equations in the region. The outcome will be keenly watched as a barometer for the political mood in Western Uttar Pradesh.

  • Total Voters: 1,550,000
  • Male Voters: 810,000
  • Female Voters: 740,000
  • Caste Composition:
  • – Scheduled Castes: 35%
  • – Other Backward Classes: 30%
  • – Upper Caste: 25%
  • – Scheduled Tribes: 10%
  • Religious Composition:
  • – Hindu: 75%
  • – Muslim: 23%
  • – Others: 2%
  • Key Issues:
  • – Improving access to quality education and healthcare
  • – Enhancing livelihood opportunities for Scheduled Castes
  • – Addressing concerns of small and marginal farmers
  • – Strengthening infrastructure and connectivity

The Moradabad Lok Sabha constituency has been a focal point of discussion due to the Samajwadi Party’s frequent changes in candidate selection. Initially, S.T. Hasan was announced as the candidate, but as the election approached, there was a shift, and Ruchira Bera was announced as an alliance candidate. This change has stirred conversations about the impact of Chandra Shekhar Azad, the leader of the Bhim Army, on the area.

The organizational basein Moradabad has seen fluctuations with different parties winning over the years. The Samajwadi Party has been influential, especially with the Muslim electorate, while the BJP made significant inroads in 2014. The BSP has also maintained a strong presence, particularly among the Dalit voters.

Mayawati’s BSP candidates have historically impacted the electoral dynamics in Moradabad, often influencing the vote share and outcomes, especially considering the demographic representation of the constituency.

In the upcoming elections, the major candidates from Moradabad include Ruchi Verma from SP, Kunwar Sarvesh Kumar from BJP, and Irfan Saifi from BSP. Their campaigns and political strategies will be crucial in determining the outcome of the elections.

The Samajwadi Party’s influence in Western UP has been significant, particularly through alliances with parties like the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), which cater to the Jat-Muslim combination, a major force in the region. In the legislative assembly seats, the BJP and its allies won a majority in the 2022 elections, while the SP-led coalition clinched a sizeable number of seats.

  • Total Voters: 1,900,000
  • Male Voters: 980,000
  • Female Voters: 920,000
  • Caste Composition:
  • – Other Backward Classes: 40%
  • – Scheduled Castes: 30%
  • – Upper Caste: 20%
  • – Scheduled Tribes: 10%
  • Religious Composition:
  • – Muslim: 45%
  • – Hindu: 53%
  • – Others: 2%  
  • Key Issues:
  • – Improving industrial development and job creation
  • – Upgrading healthcare and education infrastructure
  • – Addressing concerns of the minority community
  • – Strengthening law and order situation

The political landscape of Rampur Lok Sabha constituency has indeed been intriguing, especially with the developments surrounding  Azam Khan, a prominent leader of the Samajwadi Party (SP). Azam Khan has been a significant figure in Rampur, having been elected as an MLA multiple times and also serving as an MP from the constituency. His influence has been substantial, shaping the region’s politics for decades.

Azam Khan’s incarceration has brought about a notable shift in the dynamics of Rampur’s politics. Despite his absence, it is believed that his influence persists, and the SP is likely to nominate a candidate who aligns with his vision and has his endorsement.

State Assembly Seats in Rampur:

  • – The Rampur Lok Sabha area includes assembly segments like Rampur, Bilaspur, Suar, Chamraua, and Milak.
  • – Historically, the Rampur Assembly seat has been a stronghold of the Azam Khan family, with victories spanning from 1980 to 2022.
  • – In recent by-elections, the BJP has made significant gains in the region, winning the Rampur Sadar assembly seat.
  • Mayawati’s BSP Candidate Impact:
  • – Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has decided to contest the 2024 Lok Sabha elections solo.
  • – The BSP’s decision to field Muslim candidates in constituencies with a significant Muslim population, like Rampur, could potentially impact the vote share and dynamics, especially considering Azam Khan’s stronghold on the Muslim electorate.
  • BJP’s Situation in Rampur:
  • – The BJP has been confident about its prospects in Rampur, especially after winning the Lok Sabha seat in a by-election and the subsequent assembly seat by-election.
  • – The BJP’s current MP from the by-election is Ghanshyam Singh Lodhi.
  • – The party believes that in Azam Khan’s absence, there may be a shift in the Muslim vote bank towards the BJP, at least among those benefiting from government schemes like free rations.
  • Electoral History Since 2004:
  • – In 2004 and 2009, the SP won the Rampur Lok Sabha seat with actress Jaya Prada as the candidate.
  • – In 2014, the BJP’s Dr. Nepal Singh won the seat.
  • – Azam Khan won the seat in 2019 with a vote share of 52.71% and a winning margin of 10.37% against the BJP’s Jaya Prada.
  • – In the 2022 by-election, the BJP’s Ghanshyam Singh Lodhi won with a vote share of 51.96%.
  • This overview provides a glimpse into the complex political fabric of Rampur, highlighting the enduring influence of Azam Khan, the strategic moves by the BSP, the BJP’s growing confidence in the region, and the historical electoral trends that have shaped the constituency’s political narrative.
  • Constituency : Rampur
  • Candidate (Party): Zeeshan Khan (Bahujan Samaj Party)
  • Candidate (Party): Ghansham Lodhi(Bharatiya Janata Party)
  • Candidate (Party) Mohibullah Nadvi (Samajwadi Party)
  • Total Voters: 1,650,000
  • Male Voters: 850,000
  • Female Voters: 800,000
  • Caste Composition:
  • – Other Backward Classes: 45%
  • – Scheduled Castes: 25%
  • – Upper Caste: 20% 
  • – Scheduled Tribes: 10%
  • Religious Composition:
  • – Muslim: 55%
  • – Hindu: 43%
  • – Others: 2%
  • Key Issues:
  • – Ensuring communal harmony and peace
  • – Improving law and order situation
  • – Addressing concerns of the minority community
  • – Creating more employment opportunities

Pilibhit Lok Sabha constituency has a rich electoral history, with significant influence from Maneka Gandhi and her son Varun Gandhi. Here’s a brief overview of the constituency’s past electoral history and current political dynamics:

Past Electoral History:

  • – The constituency has seen dominance by the Praja Socialist Party (PSP) in its early years, followed by the Indian National Congress 
  • – Since 1989, Maneka Gandhi has been a pivotal figure, winning the seat multiple times for different parties and as an independent.
  • – Varun Gandhi continued the legacy by winning the seat in 2009 and 2019 as a BJP candidate.
  • Current Political Dynamics:
  • – The BJP has been the stronghold in recent years, with Varun Gandhi as the incumbent MP.
  • – The 2024 contest is expected to be triangular with the presence of Mayawati’s BSP, which could impact the vote share, especially among Muslim voters.
  • – Jitin Prasada (BJP), Bhagwat Saran Gangwar (SP), and Anis Ahmad (BSP) are the main candidates for the 2024 elections.
  • Assembly Constituencies:
  • – Pilibhit Lok Sabha constituency comprises five assembly segments: Baheri (SP), Pilibhit (BJP),  Barkhera (BJP), Puranpur (BJP), and Bisalpur (BJP).
  • – In the 2022 assembly elections, BJP candidates won in most of these segments, indicating the party’s strong presence.
  • Key Factors:
  • – The key factors in the upcoming elections include the Gandhi family’s legacy, Maneka and Varun Gandhi’s absence from the fray, and the impact of Mayawati’s strategy to target specific communities.
  • – The man-animal conflict due to the proximity to the Pilibhit Tiger Reserve has also emerged as a significant poll issue.
  • – The electorate is predominantly rural, with a considerable percentage of Scheduled Castes, which could influence the election outcome.
  • The political scenario in Pilibhit is complex, with the BJP trying to maintain its stronghold, the SP and BSP vying for significant vote shares, and the legacy of the Gandhi family still resonating with the voters.
  • Constituency 6: Pilibhit
  • Candidate (Party): Jatin Prasad (Bharatiya Janata Party)
  • Candidate (Party): Bhagwat Saran Gangwar (Samajwadi Party)
  • Candidate (Party):  Anis Ahmed Khan (Bahujan Samajawadi Party )
  • Total Voters: 1,750,000
  • Male Voters: 910,000
  • Female Voters: 840,000
  • Caste Composition:
  • – Other Backward Classes: 40%
  • – Scheduled Castes: 30%
  • – Upper Caste: 20%
  • – Scheduled Tribes: 10%
  • Religious Composition:
  • – Hindu: 85%
  • – Muslim: 13%
  • – Others: 2%
  • Key Issues:
  • – Improving agricultural productivity and irrigation
  • – Protecting wildlife and environment
  • – Creating more job opportunities for the youth
  • – Better road connectivity and public infrastructure
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