Zaheer Mustafa
Lucknow: Mayawati’s sharp rebuttal to Rahul Gandhi’s claim that the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) contributed to the BJP’s victory in the Lok Sabha elections reflects not just the complexities of Indian politics but also the shifting political landscape of Uttar Pradesh. The Congress leader’s argument was simple: had Mayawati aligned with the Congress, the BJP would have struggled to retain power at the Centre. However, the BSP chief countered by asserting that it was the Congress that functioned as the BJP’s B-team in Delhi, leading to the saffron party’s triumph in the capital.
Historically, Mayawati commanded a formidable vote bank in Uttar Pradesh, leveraging Dalit support to propel herself to the Chief Minister’s office multiple times. In 2007, BSP secured 30.43% of the vote share in UP, forming the government with an absolute majority by winning 206 of the 403 assembly seats. However, as years passed, her detachment from the grassroots and accusations of selling tickets in exchange for donations led to a sharp decline in her political stature. By the 2012 assembly elections, the BSP’s vote share dropped to 25.91%, and she was ousted from power. The erosion continued in 2014, when BSP failed to win a single Lok Sabha seat despite securing 19.77% of votes. By 2019, she attempted a grand alliance with the Samajwadi Party (SP), but the results were mixed. While BSP managed to win 10 seats with a 19.26% vote share, the SP fared worse, securing only five seats. The alliance soon collapsed, exposing Mayawati’s inability to transfer votes to coalition partners.
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections further exposed BSP’s diminishing relevance. Contesting alone, it won a mere 14.59% of votes in UP, translating to just a single seat. What is more alarming is that BSP played the role of a vote-cutter, leading to the BJP’s victory in at least 14 seats that the INDIA bloc could have won if Mayawati had aligned with them. This is precisely the point Rahul Gandhi emphasized when he questioned Mayawati’s electoral strategy. Despite her declining influence, her presence in multiple constituencies fractured the anti-BJP vote, aiding the ruling party indirectly.
One of the main reasons for BSP’s downfall is its leader’s legal entanglements and political compromises. Mayawati has faced several allegations of disproportionate assets, with the Taj Corridor case being a prominent example. Although she managed to escape legal consequences, her political flexibility has always raised eyebrows. During BJP’s weaker years, she opportunistically aligned with them for political gains. However, as BJP consolidated its power post-2014, her ability to dictate terms waned. Many analysts believe that Mayawati has been under pressure from the BJP to stay out of the opposition alliance, fearing legal repercussions if she resisted.
This pattern became evident when she refused to join the INDIA bloc despite the opposition’s collective efforts to form a united front. She justified her stance by demanding an unrealistic share of seats, knowing well that the coalition would not accept it. In hindsight, her decision proved detrimental to the anti-BJP camp, as it enabled the ruling party to secure key victories. The 2024 results show that in constituencies where BSP contested, the opposition lost by a narrow margin, reaffirming the argument that Mayawati’s presence benefited the BJP.
Mayawati’s political decline can also be attributed to her failure in maintaining her core Dalit vote bank. Over the years, a significant portion of Dalit voters has shifted towards the BJP, largely due to the saffron party’s aggressive outreach and social engineering tactics. In the 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, BSP’s vote share plummeted to a mere 12.88%, marking its worst performance in decades. The BJP, on the other hand, successfully consolidated a significant chunk of Dalit votes, particularly from the non-Jatav subgroups. This shift weakened Mayawati’s influence, making her an ineffective challenger to BJP’s dominance.
Furthermore, her leadership style has also contributed to BSP’s downfall. Unlike regional leaders who maintain grassroots connections, Mayawati has distanced herself from the public, making only occasional appearances. The lack of a strong second-rung leadership has further weakened the party. Many prominent BSP leaders have defected over the years, either due to dissatisfaction with her centralized decision-making or due to better prospects elsewhere. The inability to retain strong candidates has made it increasingly difficult for BSP to stage a comeback.
The contrast between Mayawati and other opposition leaders is stark. While parties like the SP and Congress have actively engaged in street protests and mass mobilization, BSP has remained largely absent from public movements. The absence of a strong organizational structure has made it difficult for BSP to counter BJP’s expanding influence in UP. The party’s lack of a digital outreach strategy and weak presence on social media have further alienated young voters, who now resonate more with the BJP’s political narrative.
Mayawati’s accusations against the Congress regarding the Delhi elections seem like an attempt to deflect blame rather than address the real issues. The Congress may have performed disastrously in Delhi, but its losses there do not absolve Mayawati of her role in dividing anti-BJP votes in UP. If BSP had aligned with the INDIA bloc, the BJP’s seat tally in UP would have been significantly lower. Instead, her strategic decisions have only reinforced suspicions that she is indirectly helping the ruling party by contesting elections independently.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, the road ahead for Mayawati and the BSP appears uncertain. With each passing election, her influence diminishes, and her party struggles to stay relevant. Unless she reassesses her political strategy and actively works towards rebuilding her lost base, BSP risks being relegated to irrelevance. The 2024 elections have made it clear that alliances matter in today’s political scenario, and her reluctance to forge meaningful coalitions may cost her dearly in the future. While she may continue to hurl accusations at the Congress, the reality remains that her decisions have contributed more to BJP’s victories than to the opposition’s cause.
