Shivaji Sarkar
External Affairs Minister (EAM) S. Jaishankar’s visit to the United Kingdom comes at a critical juncture when the global economy is reeling under multiple crises—persistent inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and fragile trade negotiations. With the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war reshaping global alliances and economic dependencies, India’s engagement with the UK holds strategic weight. However, the question remains: will this visit deliver substantive breakthroughs, or will it be another diplomatic engagement laden with statements but devoid of concrete outcomes?
The UK, struggling with post-Brexit economic realignment, sees India as a key partner in trade, technology, and investment. The much-anticipated Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the two nations, in negotiations since 2022, remains unresolved due to contentious issues such as mobility, tariffs, and regulatory standards. While India has shown strategic patience, the UK’s domestic political instability has hindered progress. If Jaishankar’s visit does not yield tangible momentum, it may further delay an agreement that could significantly boost bilateral trade, already valued at over £36 billion annually.
Beyond trade, the visit assumes importance in the context of the Indo-Pacific, where India seeks stronger alliances to counter China’s growing influence. The UK’s ‘Global Britain’ strategy aligns with India’s ambitions, but rhetoric must translate into actionable cooperation. Defense partnerships, technology transfers, and intelligence-sharing will be key points of discussion, yet past engagements indicate that the UK’s policy implementation lags behind its diplomatic commitments. Will London commit to deeper security collaboration, or will bureaucratic hurdles dilute strategic intentions?
A crucial aspect of Jaishankar’s visit will be India’s stance on the Ukraine-Russia conflict. The West, including the UK, continues to pressure India to take a harder line against Moscow. However, New Delhi has maintained a stance of strategic neutrality, balancing its historical ties with Russia while engaging with Western powers.
The economic ramifications of the war cannot be ignored. Europe’s energy crisis, a consequence of sanctions on Russia, has disrupted global supply chains, leading to inflationary pressures that affect India as well. London will seek New Delhi’s alignment on global sanctions, but will India compromise its energy security and military procurement from Russia for the sake of diplomatic alignment? Jaishankar has previously articulated India’s firm position on pursuing national interests over external pressures. Whether the UK can offer tangible economic incentives to alter this stance remains to be seen.
The global economy is facing turbulence, with recession fears looming over Western economies and financial markets grappling with instability. The UK’s economic slowdown, coupled with India’s resilience as the fastest-growing major economy, makes this visit particularly significant for global investors. The City of London, a major financial hub, is keen to attract Indian capital, while India seeks better market access for its IT, pharmaceuticals, and services sectors.
However, past trade negotiations suggest that UK’s reluctance to ease visa restrictions for Indian professionals has been a major sticking point. If Britain remains inflexible on workforce mobility while expecting greater trade concessions from India, the FTA talks may continue to stagnate. The meeting between Jaishankar and his British counterparts will test whether the UK is willing to make necessary adjustments for a mutually beneficial agreement.
India’s foreign policy under Jaishankar has been defined by strategic pragmatism and economic foresight. His previous engagements with Western powers have demonstrated India’s growing influence in global diplomacy. However, UK’s economic troubles, coupled with political flux, may limit the scope of high-impact agreements from this visit.
The fundamental question remains: will the UK and India finally move beyond diplomatic niceties and formal agreements to deliver concrete economic and geopolitical results? As the world grapples with economic fallout and shifting power dynamics, this visit presents an opportunity to recalibrate ties. Whether it translates into definitive action or remains another round of diplomatic discussions will determine the trajectory of India-UK relations in an increasingly volatile global order.
(A well-recognised media commentator, the writer is currently serving as a Professor at the Indian Institute of Mass Communication, New Delhi)
