Benu Gopal Ghosh
India’s strategic concerns in South Asia have deepened as Bangladesh appears to be recalibrating its foreign policy. After warming up to Pakistan, Dhaka is now strengthening ties with China, raising alarm bells in New Delhi. With a shift in leadership following Sheikh Hasina’s exit, Bangladesh’s evolving alliances could present fresh challenges for the Modi government.
Recently, a 21-member Bangladeshi delegation, including politicians, scholars, and student leaders, toured China at Beijing’s invitation. Reports from Global Times suggest that the delegation was deeply impressed by China’s technological advancements and infrastructure, leading many to view the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as crucial for Bangladesh’s economic future. The delegation visited leading Chinese firms like BYD and LONGi, highlighting Dhaka’s growing interest in Chinese investment and technology.
In a significant financial development, Bangladesh has requested China to reduce interest rates on loans from 2-3% to 1%, waive the commitment fee, and extend repayment terms from 20 to 30 years under the Preferential Buyer’s Credit (PBC) and Government Concessional Loans (GCL) agreements. According to the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), Chinese investments in Bangladesh stood at $7.07 billion as of 2023. This shift towards Chinese economic support is being closely monitored in New Delhi.
Intelligence sources, as reported by The Times of India, have suggested that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), backed by China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS), played a role in protests that led to Hasina’s exit in August 2024. The ISI-backed Jamaat-e-Islami and its student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS), allegedly converted quota protests into an orchestrated effort to install a pro-Pakistan, pro-China regime, with financial backing traced to Chinese sources in Pakistan. Beijing’s discomfort with Hasina’s proximity to India reportedly led to behind-the-scenes maneuvering to reshape Bangladesh’s political landscape.
While Bangladesh’s new leadership is yet to settle, Nobel laureate Mohammad Yunus has been floated as a potential interim head, but political instability persists. With rising activity from new political parties, Bangladesh’s foreign policy trajectory remains uncertain. If Bangladesh increasingly aligns with Pakistan and China, India faces a significant diplomatic challenge in the region.
Adding to India’s worries, a Pakistani cargo ship recently docked at Bangladesh’s Mongla Port for the first time in 53 years, as per The Economic Times. This follows a government-to-government deal to import 50,000 metric tonnes of Basmati rice from Pakistan. This development is particularly striking given that the previous Sheikh Hasina government had strengthened India-Bangladesh connectivity by granting New Delhi access to Chittagong and Mongla ports. With Pakistan now gaining a strategic foothold, India’s influence in Bangladesh may be under threat.
Reports suggest that Pakistan’s ISI is actively increasing its footprint in Bangladesh, allegedly influencing the country’s legal system and working to secure the release of radical elements. ISI-backed groups such as Jamaat-e-Islami and Islami Chhatra Shibir have been fostering extremist networks, which could threaten both Bangladesh’s internal security and India’s regional stability.
A recent high-profile meeting between Bangladesh’s Naval Chief Admiral Mohammad Nazmul Hassan and Pakistan Army Chief General Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah in Rawalpindi further signals the strengthening of Bangladesh-Pakistan ties. This marks the second high-level defense meeting between the two nations in under a month, potentially reshaping regional dynamics to India’s detriment.
Former US President Donald Trump’s past remark—”I left Bangladesh on Modi”—which was reiterated by Pakistani officials, has resurfaced amid these geopolitical shifts. The comment suggests that the US had indirectly relied on India to manage Bangladesh’s political affairs. However, with Hasina’s exit and Bangladesh’s pivot towards China and Pakistan, the situation is evolving beyond India’s control. This raises a critical question: Is India now paying the price for being seen as the primary overseer of Bangladesh’s stability?
India now faces a complex diplomatic challenge as Bangladesh’s strategic choices could have long-term implications. New Delhi is likely to pursue a multi-pronged approach:
- Economic Leverage: India might counterbalance China’s growing influence by offering more favorable trade terms, development assistance, and infrastructure projects under its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy.
- Political Engagement: Strengthening diplomatic outreach with Dhaka’s new leadership will be crucial to maintaining historical ties and countering Pakistan’s influence.
- Military and Security Cooperation: India may enhance defense cooperation with Bangladesh to counteract rising ISI-backed activities.
- Regional Alliances: Strengthening partnerships with other South Asian nations to ensure India remains the dominant player in the region.
If Bangladesh continues on its current trajectory, India may face multiple challenges:
- Security Threats: ISI-backed radical elements could destabilize Bangladesh and pose a cross-border threat to India.
- Economic Competition: Increased Chinese investments in Bangladesh might reduce India’s economic influence.
- Geopolitical Shifts: If Bangladesh strengthens military ties with Pakistan, India could face a two-front diplomatic challenge.
With Yunus still unsettled and new political parties gaining traction, Bangladesh’s political landscape remains fluid. The critical question remains: Will Dhaka choose to align more closely with Pakistan, or will it maintain a balanced approach? With China’s growing economic grip and Pakistan’s strategic maneuvering, India’s neighborhood watch has indeed become trickier.
