The Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (NC), once regarded as the most influential political organisation in the Valley, is passing through a difficult phase. The party’s problems appear to extend beyond electoral setbacks: internal disagreements, weak organisational coordination, dissatisfaction among senior workers and an increasing distance between the leadership and the public have created a sense of uncertainty about its future.

Although the NC remains the principal political force in much of the Kashmir Valley, its position is no longer unchallenged. In the 2024 Assembly elections, the party emerged as the largest formation, while the BJP secured 29 seats and maintained its dominance in Jammu. This regional division has made the NC’s political responsibility greater, but it has also exposed the limitations of a party whose traditional support base is under pressure.

Growing internal discontent
The most serious challenge before the NC is the perception that its command structure has become less receptive to criticism. Several senior leaders and party workers believe that decisions are being taken within a narrow circle and that grassroots opinion is not receiving adequate attention.

There is also resentment against Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, whom critics accuse of appearing distant from ordinary people. Such perceptions can be politically damaging in Kashmir, where regional parties have traditionally depended on direct contact with the public, local networks and the personal credibility of their leaders.

Internal disagreements have already become visible in public. In January 2025, differences within the party surfaced after senior leader Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi led a protest, while NC minister Sakina Itoo criticised it as a publicity stunt. The episode indicated disagreement not merely over an individual protest but also over political strategy, leadership and the party’s approach to issues surrounding Article 370.

Akhoon’s departure
The reported departure of senior functionary Sayeed Akhoon from the post of vice-president, along with a large number of workers from the Zadibal constituency, is another warning sign for the NC. Such defections matter because they reflect dissatisfaction at the organisational level rather than simply the movement of one political personality.

Akhoon is reported to have been associated with the NC since the era of Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah. According to his account, he had spent nearly six decades in the organisation. His criticism—that senior workers were not respected and that their advice was not welcomed—raises an important question: has the NC’s traditional cadre-based structure weakened?

Akhoon’s reported opposition to using the restoration of Articles 370 and 35A merely as an electoral slogan also deserves attention. He is said to have favoured a more practical demand involving constitutional safeguards under Article 371A and the Sixth Schedule. Whether or not one agrees with that proposal, the larger issue is significant: a regional party cannot afford to suppress internal debate on questions central to its political identity.

His reported suggestion that Muzaffar Shah should be inducted as general secretary also appears to have gone unheeded. If senior leaders feel that their suggestions are routinely ignored, the resulting alienation can gradually spread to the lower ranks.

The Shah factor
The role of Muzaffar Shah and the Awami National Conference adds another dimension to the NC’s difficulties. Shah has consistently challenged what he describes as the NC’s immature or impractical political positions, particularly its emphasis on the restoration of Articles 370 and 35A after the constitutional changes of August 2019.

The political relationship between the Abdullah and Shah families has also been marked by a long history of rivalry. The split within the NC in 1984, followed by the emergence of the Awami National Conference under G. M. Shah, transformed a family disagreement into a lasting political division. Over the years, this rivalry has continued to influence the Valley’s political discourse.

Shah supported the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration, formed in October 2020 to oppose the changes made to Jammu and Kashmir’s constitutional position. However, the alliance later weakened because its constituent parties differed in their political priorities and electoral calculations. The fact that Shah’s individual petition remains before the Supreme Court keeps the constitutional question alive, even though the wider political unity represented by the PAGD has diminished.

Statehood and public grievances
The issue of restoration of statehood remains one of the few subjects on which several political parties in Jammu and Kashmir can find common ground. At a seminar titled “Let Us Talk About Kashmir” on August 5, Congress leader and Rajya Sabha member Pawan Khera reportedly said that his party supports the restoration of statehood and constitutional safeguards for the people of Jammu and Kashmir. He also stressed the need to address public grievances before beginning a wider political dialogue.

This position presents both an opportunity and a challenge for the NC. The party can claim that restoration of statehood has been one of its consistent demands, but it must also show that it has a broader programme for governance, employment, development and public accountability.

A party cannot survive indefinitely on historical legitimacy or constitutional slogans. The public expects visible results in administration, infrastructure, education, employment and the protection of civil rights. If the NC fails to connect its larger political demands with everyday concerns, other parties may occupy the space it leaves vacant.

BJP’s expanding influence
The question of who first opened the door to the Jana Sangh or the BJP in Jammu and Kashmir remains politically contentious. However, the historical record shows that regional parties have, at different times, entered into arrangements with organisations that later became or were represented by the BJP.

The NC supported the Janata Party in Jammu during the late 1970s, though that arrangement did not complete its term. Later, the NC joined the BJP-led government at the Centre when Atal Bihari Vajpayee was prime minister, and Omar Abdullah served as a minister of state for external affairs. The PDP subsequently formed a coalition government with the BJP in 2015, first under Mufti Mohammad Sayeed and later under Mehbooba Mufti.

These episodes demonstrate that the BJP’s influence in Jammu and Kashmir cannot be examined only through the language of formal alliances. The party has also expanded its organisational and electoral influence, particularly in Jammu. In the 2024 Assembly elections, it won 29 seats, while the NC remained strongest in the Valley.

The political consequence is that the NC now faces pressure from two directions. In Kashmir, it must respond to public frustration, separatist sentiment and competition from the PDP, the Awami National Conference and newer political formations. In Jammu, it must confront a BJP that has consolidated its position and become the region’s dominant political force.

A leadership test
The current crisis is ultimately a test of leadership. Dr Farooq Abdullah’s historical stature remains important, but the party’s future depends on whether it can modernise its internal functioning and create space for younger and dissenting voices. Omar Abdullah, as chief minister, must also demonstrate that he is accessible, responsive and capable of translating the NC’s political claims into effective governance.