Despite Israel-Iran Ceasefire, Situation in West Asia May Deteriorate Further

 

 

Without any bias it may be stated that at last there is a match, not mismatch in regularly disturbed West Asia. Iran, a vast nation of 90 millions with meticulous preparation, latest arms & ammunitions and tremendous patience, waited for long to register the most devastating military strike against Israel in modern history. It happened even when U.S. forces from far off and 30 bases in the region were on high alert. Latest 510 million Dollars worth of ammunition offer to Israel, too is unlikely to make a dent.

 

Iran has a defence treaty with Russia. In turn, China too has such a treaty with Russia. Having seen the efficacy of their missiles especially Fateh, Iran is likely to use 2000 more in days to come.

 

 

Rebuilding By Israel

 

Israel, apart from cautioning its civilians about intensity and speed of missile power of Iran which can reach any part of Israel in 7 minutes, had resorted to regular suppression and sacrilege of Palestinians in Gaza Strip during current war with Iran. Israel had to pay a heavy price ($ 12 Billions) on initiating attacks on Iran upon instigation, financial aid, intelligence and latest arms & ammunition from USA.This blind follower of American imperialism forgot that U.S. had attacked seven countries of the region on 25 occasions in last 12 years, plan for which began in 2001 according to one top U.S. security expert. Not always there was victory for U.S.They had humiliating departures from Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria. It is likely in Ukraine also.

 

 

Threat From Triple H.H.H.

 

Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis of Yemen too have kept USA and Israel on tenterhooks. While last two non state actors have never been dormant, swift sacrilege of 1200 Israelis and act of taking 250 of their brethren as hostage by dreaded men of Hamas on October 7, 2023 proves the point rather boldly against U.S-Israel combine.

 

Further, each inhuman offence against the Palestinians at Gaza Strip and West Bank before and after October, 2023 now draws world wide sympathy and support from Jews and followers of other religions alike, even inside Israel. One happened right opposite residence of P.M. Netanyahu.These continued shows of strength against the duo had no nemesis even after so called Cease fire between Israel and Iran.

 

It is being widely stated that Israel has got a fierce competitor in Iran after 77 years if 1948 war between Arab nations & Israel is to be taken into account. And it becomes 58 years as compared to 1967 war.

 

 

Past Wars of Israel

 

*From 5th to 10th June,1967, a war between Israel and coalition forces comprising Egypt, Syria and Jordan took place. Israel gained control of Sinai, old city of Jerusalem, West Bank and Gaza Strip.When Jerusalem was under command of Jordon, Israelis were humiliated and expelled. After getting victory in 1967, Israelis could re unite their divided capital. Thus Jews could return to Western Wall for the first time. Afterall, it was holiest to them.

 

*After a lapse of over six years on October 6 1973, again coalition of three countries attacked Israel in Sinai and Golan Heights to regain territories they had lost in previous war. But these were again won by Israel. Since 1973, its all quiet on Egyptian and Syrian front vis a vis Israel.

 

Incidently Egypt, alongwith Qatar, USA and UAE figures in a crucial commitee to mediate between Israel and Hamas to resolve the dead lock on release of over 250 Israeli hostages by Hamas in October, 2023 and to ensure a decent life to Palestinians in Gaza Strip.

 

 

Gaza Situation Getting Bad to Worse

 

Gaza Strip was taken away from Egypt by Israel after 1967 war. Israel built settlements and placed Palestinians under military rule. Over the years, it has become an 'open prison'.

 

Having an area of only 365 sq.kms, its residents are living in trying circumstances, facing severe lack of basic amenities and are permitted only to travel to West Bank. That too under very exceptional circumstances.

 

Though 90% of dwelling units have been attacked or demolished by Israel , 2.1 million Palestinians are residing somehow and face abject poverty. Old and children alike can not avail of primary health facilities. 80% of youth are deprived of even elementary employment.

 

 

Israel’s Four Objectives in Gaza

 

Gaza Strip campaign of Israel has following four objectives:

To Destroy Hamas, militant wing of PLO,To Free Israelis taken hostage on October 7, 2023,To Ensure that Gaza no longer poses a threat to them and To Return displaced residents of North Israel.

 

Thus far, five wars have been fought by Israel against Hamas.These were in 2008-09, 2012, 2014, 2021 and 2024.After Cease fire reached to halt action in last war, Hamas has been quiet but shameless Israeli action continues.

 

Palestine has been the focal point ever since Jews were settled by Britishers on 14th May,1948.This territory occupied by Palestinians was purposely chosen as Jews of Europe and USA did not want forefathers of present day Israelis to settle either in Europe or USA.

 

A country called Palestine never existed prior to establishment of Israel.Though it was historically known as Palestine, it was administered by the British after being under various empires. When Britishers, abandoned the land, U.S. gradually filled up the vacuum through evil designs of Israel.

 

UNO proposed a partition plan in 1947 to divide the land into Arab and Jewish states. It could not be implemented owing to 1948 Arab-Israel war.

 

Situation could not improve since then. Rather, with passing of each year, it goes on deteriorating.

 

When Yasser Arafat was alive, their voices were heard. Once in UNO they staked a claim to become 194th member. But a veto by USA tarnished their hope. As on date, 22 countries including India(1988),have recognised PLO.

 

Of 20 members of G-20, eleven figure in this category.

 

 

12-Day War, Latest Turning Point

 

A full fledged war began with Israeli missiles striking Iran nuclear facilities late at night on 12th June. Operation Rising Lion was launched by them in full swing. USA began shifting military resources in the region as Israel prepared for retaliation.While Israel vowed to intensify attacks, Iran called off nuclear deal talks with USA. It was learnt that closing of 3 kms wide Strait of Hormuz may be one of vital options for Iran.

 

 

Iran, however urged Trump to ask Israel to halt war.

 

Tehran also appealed to Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman to press Trump to exercise influence on Israel.

 

Reports of USA shifting military jets, ships, vessels etc. in the region to protect Israel from further strikes appeared.Russia told USA not to strike Iran. Iran missiles hit Weizmann Institute of Science, causing damage to multiple laboratries, snuffing out years of scientific research. It was a major blow to Israel.

 

Houthi rebels resumed attacks on U.S. vessels in Red Sea.U.S.A. entered war by bombing nuclear sites by B2 Spirit bombers at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. As war widens on 11th Day, Iran attacked one of largest U.S. bases in Qatar in which 80 persons were killed.

 

 

Hasty Decision of Trump

 

Around 10 a.m on 24 June, President Trump announced a unilateral Cease Fire.

 

Both warrying nations were surprised. A day after Trump announced C.F., Israeli Ambassador to India confessed that it was brokered in coordination with Israel. Now C.F was stable as per him but Iran was deceiving international community.

 

Without consent of U.S. Congress, President Trump intervened in the middle of war. He also declared a unilateral Cease fire.Constitution of USA gives Congress, the sole power to declare war. But President Trump acted on his own. His cherished desire to go for more bombing of Iran has not been put to end. He wants to use further force.In contrast, U.S. law makers have sought details about country's strikes on Iran and fate of Iran's stockpiles of highly enriched Uranium.

 

Ayatollah Kheimeini has stated that his country had slapped USA by striking at their base at Qatar. In future too such attacks were not ruled out.

 

 

Humanitarian Crisis

 

The humanitarian crisis in Gaza continues to worsen, with 218 Palestinians recently killed amid ongoing conflict and severe disruptions to aid deliveries. Reports indicate essential supplies are being deliberately withheld or scattered, exacerbating widespread starvation and malnutrition, particularly among children. The Palestinian Ambassador to the UN states that since a ceasefire was broken in March 2025, over 1,300 Palestinian children have died and 4,000 have been injured, contributing to a two-year toll of 60,000 lives lost, 120,000 wounded, and 90% of homes destroyed.

 

International bodies like UNICEF and the UN Secretary-General have condemned the "extremely inhuman scenes" of suffering, with the latter calling the US-backed aid operation "inherently unsafe" and noting that people are being killed while desperately seeking food. The dire situation underscores the urgent need for unfettered humanitarian access and an end to the violence that has devastated the region and its population.

 

The ongoing situation in West Asia is characterized by a significant Israeli military defeat, with extensive damage to key infrastructure being deliberately concealed. Concurrently, Iran has resumed repairs at three nuclear facilities and rejected a nuclear deal with the USA, while aligning strategically with China by adopting its internet services. This shift in alliances is further solidified by the open support of Russia, China, North Korea, Turkey, and Pakistan for Iran, evidenced by Chinese arms deliveries and Iranian aid convoys reaching Gaza.

 

This escalating crisis is attributed to external influences, with the potential for severe global repercussions, including the disruption of crude oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to worldwide shortages and inflation. India's conspicuous silence on the conflict, despite its ties to both sides, has drawn criticism, contrasting sharply with its past comments on other international conflicts and its responses to its own border issues.

 

Ultimately, a resolution to this deeply entrenched conflict is contingent upon a fundamental shift in the attitudes of Israel and the USA. Without such a change, the current "political spin" will continue to hinder progress, ensuring a prolonged and volatile period in the region.

 

(Author, a retired civil servant, formerly served as the Chief Secretary, Government of Sikkim.)

 

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